lundi, janvier 10, 2005

Development of Oil and Gas Sectors

Naft, Gaz, Petroshimi, Monthly Magazine, No. 29, Jan. 2005

Giving a clear image of the achievements of an economic project is impossible without taking into account the peripheral effects. Major oil and gas projects leave a variety of economic, political and social impacts even on other countries. Apart from producing revenues, major energy projects can bolster Iran’s national security, create jobs, develop downstream companies at lower costs and reduce the environmental pollution.


The most significant results of oil and gas developmental projects are as follows:

Internal Stability

Development of upstream oil and gas sectors contribute to determination of a share for the countries in the energy market. Relevant deals produce more revenues thereby meeting the needs largely. Although twenty five years have passed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution efforts are under way for boosting non-oil exports which serve as a source of income for the country.

Regional Balance

The importance of economic constituents from a security standpoint has drawn anxiety from the countries. The countries compare their economic situation with the neighbors and that was why Iran’s National Security Council ruled in 1990 that Iran’s oil output should not be less than its western neighbor Iraq.

A fall in Iran’s revenues from oil production may endanger the economic stability and a remarkable reduction in Iran’s energy production share may pose foreign threats at national and international levels. In the meantime, cultural, economic, political and social bonds can prompt the countries in the region to increase their sense of competitiveness.

Due to meager investment in the gas sector, Russia cannot meet the future demands of Europeans and Iran, the second largest holder of gas reserves, can play a major role. The most economical option for a Central Asian pipeline to serve oil and gas swap is Iran thanks to its access to high seas.

National Security and Stability of Energy Supply

The security aspect of energy at the international stage is much different from its economic or developmental function. The collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics left an important impact on the analytical views of the economic constituents of national security.

Iran is well mindful of the 1953 US-backed coup against the popular government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosadeq although the conditions are much different now.

Diversification of Non-Oil Exports

Petrochemical industry is a major oil sector and Iranian engineers are well specialized in this sector. Iran is moving to nationalize petrochemical industry. The products of petrochemical complexes are categorized in five groups: basic petrochemicals, polymers, aromatics, fertilizers and poisons and hydrocarbons. They feed on sweet and sour gas, light and heavy naphtha, liquid gas and phosphate powder. Gas resources are much more cost-effective than naphtha.
Iran’s National Petrochemical Company has 18 projects under way now. Estimated at 6.7 billion dollars plus 17.2 trillion rials, they are predicted to come on-stream in three years. They would yield nearly seven billion rials in revenues.
Iran’s petrochemical sector relies on gas industries. Gas accounts for more than 75 percent of the buy-back deals.

Economic Stability

Iran’s hard currency market has witnessed good stability in recent years. Fluctuations of foreign exchange rating have never jumped drastically. The impacts of buy-back deals should not be ignored.

Sustainable Employment

Upstream oil and gas sectors have created less jobs than other sectors but buy-back deals have accounted for sustainable job generation. Any industrial job costs nearly 5,000 dollars. In the oil sector, the figure reaches 10,000 dollars. Contractors feel obliged to recruit Iranian forces for development operations. Investing 14 billion dollars in the oil and gas industries can create nearly 600,000 jobs. Currently, development of phases of the massive South Pars Gas Field has so far created at least 13,000 jobs. The figure adds up to 150,000 taking into account indirect jobs.

Combating Deprivation

The geographical position of Assaluyeh Port in the south of the country where deprived provinces are located is noteworthy. Pars Special Energy Economic Zone has seen five petrochemical projects and many other infrastructural units are under construction.

Environment

Buy-back deals give the priority to clean fuel and gathering of associated gases should be carried out seriously. Development of South Pars Gas Field has given rise to environmental results.

Shared Fields

Nearly 70 percent of buy-back deals involve development of shared oil and gas fields. Iran should not lose the time in oil and gas recovery from the fields it shares with the neighbors or face the consequences.

Bolstering the Private Sector

Buy-back deals have set the stage for the presence of private companies in upstream oil and gas sectors. These companies bring in technological savvy and let the government gain more revenues. Petropars, Petroiran, Naftiran Intertrade Company, Iran’s Oil Engineering and Construction Company and IRITEC are the leading contractors.

Training

Buy-back deals can contribute to transfer of technological know-how. Contractors are obliged to train Iranian forces to a good level. At least 1.4 billion dollars is allocated to this end.

jeudi, janvier 06, 2005

Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act (Fippa New)

chapter 1- definitions
article 1:

the terms and expressions used in this law shall have the following meanings:

law: the law for the promotion and protection of foreign investments. foreign investor: non-iranian natural and/or juridical persons or iranians using capital of foreign source, who have obtained the investment license referred to in article (6). foreign capital: all types of capital, being cash or non-cash, brought into the country by foreign investors and includes the following:

a. cash funds in the form of convertible currency imported into the country through banking system or other methods of transfer, acceptable to the central bank of the islamic republic of iran;

b. machinery and equipments;

c. tools and spares, ckd parts and raw, addable, and auxiliary materials;

d. patent rights, know-how, trade marks and names, and specialized services;

e. transferable dividends of foreign investors;

f. other permissible species approved by the council of ministers.

foreign investment: application of foreign capital in a new or existing economic entity after obtaining the investment license. investment license: the license issued for every foreign investment in accordance with article 6 of this law. organization: the organization for investment, economic and technical assistance of iran, subject matter of article (5) of the law establishing the ministry of economic affairs and finance ratified on july 15, 1974. high council: the high council for investment, subject matter of article (7) of the charter of the organization for investment, economic and technical assistance of iran ratified on june 2, 1975.

board: the foreign investment board, subject matter of article (6) of this law.

chapter 2- general criteria for admission of foreign investments

article 2:

admission of foreign investment shall be made, in accordance with the provisions of this law and with due observance of other prevailing laws and regulations of the country, subject to the following criteria: help create economic growth, upgrade technology, enhance ,development of the quality of products, increase employment opportunities, exports, and penetrate into international markets; does not threaten the national security and public benefits, and deteriorate the environment; does not distort the country's economy and impose unfair implication on products based on local investments; does not involve granting of concessions by the government to foreign investors. the word concession as used herein means special rights which place the foreign investors in a monopolistic position. the ratio of the value of the goods and services produced by the foreign investments, subject matter of this law, to the value ,t of the goods and services supplied to the local market at the time of issuance of the investment license, shall not exceed 25% in each economic sector and 35% in each field (sub- sector). the fields and investment ceilings in each field shall be determined in the by-law to be approved by the council of ministers.

foreign investment for the production of goods and services specifically for export purposes other than oil, shall be . exempted from the aforementioned ratios. note. the law for the ownership of immovable properties by foreign nationals ratified on june 6, 1921 shall remain enforceable.ownership of land of any type and at any scale in the name of foreign investors is not permissible within the framework of this law.

article 3:

foreign investments admitted in accordance with provisions of this law shall enjoy the incentives and protections available under this law. such investments may be admitted under the following two categories:

a. foreign direct investment in areas where the activity of private sector is permissible;

b. foreign investments in all sectors within the framework of "civil participation", "buy-back" and "build-operate-transfer" arrangements where the return of capital and profits accrued is solely emanated from the economic performance of the r project in which the investment is made, and such return of capital and profit shall not be dependent upon a guarantee by the government, state-owned companies or banks.

note 1: so long as the foreign investment subject matter of "build-operate-transfer" arrangements referred to in para (b) of this article, and its incurred profits thereon are not amortized, the exercise of ownership right by the foreign investor over the unamortized capital in respect of the recipient economic entity is permissible.

note 2: with respect to investments subject matter of para (b) of this article, if, as a result of promulgation of laws or government resolutions, the execution of approved financial agreements within the framework of this law is prohibited or : interrupted, the accrued losses, to a maximum of due installments shall be committed and paid by the government. the scope of ac:ceptable commitments shall be approved, within the framework of this law, by the council of ministers.

article 4:

the investment by a foreign government or foreign governments in the islamic republic of iran shall have to be approved by the islamic consultative assembly on a case by case basis. the investment by foreign state-owned companies is considered to be private.

chapter 4- guarantee and transfer of foreign capital

article 8:

foreign investments under this law shall equally enjoy all , rights, protections, and facilities provided for domestic investments.

article 9:

foreign investments shall not be subjected to expropriation or nationalization, unless for public purposes, in accordance with due of law, in a non-discriminatory manner, and upon payment of appropriate compensation on the basis of the real value of the investment immediately before the expropriation.

note 1: application for compensation shall have to be submitted to the board within one year from the date of r-' expropriation or nationalization.

note 2: disputes arising from expropriation or nationalization shall be settled by virtue of the provisions of article (19) of this law.

article 10:

ceding the whole or part of the foreign capital to domestic investor and/or, upon approval of the board and confirmation of the minister of economic affairs and finance, to other foreign investor is permissible. in case of ceding to another foreign investor, the cedee shall, at least, have the same qualifications as the initial investor, and shall replace and/or become a partner to the former investor from the standpoint of this law.

chapter 5- provisions on admission, importation and repatriation of foreign capital

article 11:

foreign capital may be imported into the country by way of one or a combination of the following manners to be protected by this law:

a. sums of cash to be converted into rials;

b. sums of cash not to be converted into rials but to be used directly for purchases and orders related to foreign investment;

c. non-cash items after evaluation by the competent authorities. note. arrangements related to the manner of evaluation, and registration of foreign capital shall be determined in the implementing regulations of this law.

article 12:

the rate of conversion of foreign exchange applicable at the time of importation or repatriation of foreign capital as well as the rate for all transfers, in case of applicability of a unified rate of exchange, shall be the same rate prevailing in the country's official network; otherwise, the applicable rate shall be the free-market rate as acknowledged by the central bank of the islamic republic of iran.

article 13:

the original foreign capital and the accrued profits, or the balance of capital remaining in the country subject to a three month prior notice, after fulfillment of all obligations and payment of legal deductions, and upon confirmation by the minister of economic affair and finance, shall be transferable abroad.

article 14:

dividends of foreign investments after deduction of taxes, dues and statutory reserves, upon the approval of the board, and confirmation by the minister of economic affairs and finance, shall be transferable abroad.

article 15:

payments related to the installments of the principal of the financial facilities of foreign investors and relevant expenses,agreements for patent rights, know-how, technical and engineering assistance, trade marks and names, management as well as similar agreements within the framework of the relevant foreign investment, upon the approval of the board and confirmation by the minister of economic affairs and finance, are transferable abroad.

article 16:

transfers referred to in articles (13) , (14) and (15), shall be made subject to the provisions of para (b) of article (3) of this law.

article 17:

foreign exchange required for the transfers referred to in articles (14), (15) and (16) of this law may be secured by way of the following methods:

a. purchase of foreign currency from the banking system;

b. out of the foreign exchange earnings from the export of the products and/or out of the foreign exchange earnings from service activities of the economic entity in which the foreign capital is employed;

c. the export of permissible goods subject to the relevant laws and regulations.

note1. application of one or a combination of the above methods shall be specified in the investment license.

note 2. the central bank of the islamic republic of iran is under obligation, to make available to the foreign investor the equivalent foreign currency for the transferable sums referred to in para (a), upon agreement of the organization and confirmation by the minister of economic affairs and finance.

note 3. in case the investment license expressly refers to para (b) and/or (c) of this article, this license is regarded as an export license.

article 18:

transfer abroad of the portion of the foreign capital imported into the country within the framework of the investment license but remains unused, is released from all foreign exchange, and export and import laws and regulations.

chapter 6- settlement of disputes

article 19:

disputes arising between the government and the foreign investors in respect of the mutual obligations within the framework of investments under this law, if not settled through negotiations, shall be referred to domestic courts, unless another method for settlement of disputes have been agreed under the law for bilateral investment agreement with the respective government of the foreign investor.

chapter 7- final provisions

article 20:

the relevant executive bodies are required to take , measures, upon the request of the organization, for the issuance of entry visa, residence permit, work and employment permit, as the case may be, for foreign investors, managers and experts working for the private sector involved in foreign investments under this law, as well as their immediate relatives.

note. differences of opinions between the organization and executive. bodies. will be settled upon the opinion of the minister of economic affairs and finance.

article 21:

the organization is required to provide for the public to have access to all information related to investments, foreign investors, investment opportunities, iranian partners, fields of activity and other information available to the organization.

article 22:

all ministries, state-owned companies and organizations as well as public institutes to whom the applicability of law is required to be stipulated by name, are under obligation to provide the organization with reports on foreign investments implemented as we,ll a.s information requir~d for foreign in~estors i so that the organization can proceed in accordance with the above article.

article 23:

the minister of economic affairs and finance is required to provide, every six months, the relevant committees in islamic consultative assembly with a report on the performance of the organization with respect to foreign investments under this law.

article 24:

as from the date of ratification of this law and its t implementing regulations, the law for the attraction and protection of foreign investments ratified on november 28, 1945 - as well as its implementing regulations are repealed. the provisions of this law shall be repealed or altered by subsequent laws and regulations in the event that repeal or alteration of this law would have been stipulated in those laws and regulations.

article 25:

the implementing regulations of this law shall be prepared by the ministry of economic affairs and finance and shall be subsequently approved by the council of ministers within two months. the above law comprised of 25 articles and 11 notes has been approved by the islamic consultative assembly in its session ..

mercredi, janvier 05, 2005

4ème plan quinquennal de développement (2005-2009)

Les objectifs sectoriels inscrits au 4ème plan quinquennal de développement (2005-2009) et les projets de construction de centrales électriques sous forme de BOT en Iran

L’Iran a actuellement une puissance installée publique d’environ 30.000 MW, portée jusqu’à 34.500 MW si l’on prend intègre les infrastructures des sites industriels disposant de sources d’énergie autonomes. L’Iran souhaite accroître cette dernière de 30% chaque année jusqu’en 2010. Aujourd’hui, le Ministère de l’énergie dispose d’un différentiel limité de 5% entre la capacité installée et la consommation nationales. Le quatrième plan de développement (2005-2010) prévoit de porter cette marge à 10%. Actuellement, environ 2.000 MW supplémentaires sont en cours de construction ou programmés pour l’année 1383 (2004 -2005), sous la maîtrise d’ouvrage de Tavanir, filiale à 100% du ministère de l’énergie chargée de la planification et du contrôle du programme de construction de centrales en Iran.

On estime à l’heure actuelle que le ministère de l’énergie subventionne en moyenne 60% du prix de l’électricité vendue en Iran, ce qui explique notamment que les autorités cherchent à privilégier désormais les projets sous forme de BOT/BOO. Jusqu’à présent, quatre projets de ce type existent en Iran. Trois ont été lancés : « Chel sotun », « Rood-e-shoor » ainsi que « Par-e-sar », et le dernier situé à « Tabriz » devrait démarrer en 1384.

La construction de la première centrale électrique en BOT « Par-e-sar » a démarré en Août 2004, située à 60 kms au sud d’Isfahan et 10 kms de Mobarakeh. Elle aura une capacité installée de 954 MW répartie en six unités de 159 MW. Le coût estimatif du projet est de 320 millions USD. Le consortium chargé du projet réunit la société allemande EHAG et la filiale du Ministère de l’énergie MAPNA Co, qui est responsable du développement des centrales thermiques en Iran. La première phase du projet devrait être opérationnelle en mars 2005.

Le deuxième projet public important en cours de construction est la centrale de «Rood-e-shoor». Cette centrale électrique construite en BOO doit avoir une capacité installée de 2.250 MW. 3 turbines d’une capacité de 750 MW ont été achetées à Siemens dans le cadre de la première phase du projet qui devrait être achevée en décembre 2005. Le maître d’ouvrage de ce projet est la société privée iranienne Makhtab gostar et le maître d’oeuvre est le consortium turcobelge Unit international.

Le troisième projet en cours de construction à Chel sotun, au sud d’Isfahan, est une centrale thermique de 500 MW. Enfin, le quatrième projet en BOT, géré par l’IPDC, filiale de Tavanir, porte sur la construction d’une centrale électrique d’une capacité installée de 1.000 MW à Tabriz, estimé à 500 millions EUR, qui devrait être finalisé en fin d’année 1383 (mars 2005).

L’Agence internationale de notation Fitch révise à la hausse la note du risque pays Iran

L’Agence internationale de notation Fitch a publié le 14 décembre 2004 son
rapport sur le risque pays Iran. L’Agence estime que les revenus pétroliers
générés par la hausse des cours ont supporté, à la fois, le budget de l’Etat et la
balance du compte courant (l’excédent de la balance courante est estimé à 4,8%
du PIB en 2004 soit 7,3 Mds USD, IDE inclus). Les perspectives à moyen
terme sont, outre des revenus d’exportation pétrolière attendus à 34,6 Mds
USD en 2004, renforcées selon l’Agence par un faible endettement extérieur et
l’engagement de hauts responsables en faveur des réformes économiques
amorcées lors du troisième plan quinquennal. Fitch se réfère notamment à la
relecture de l’article 44 de la Constitution par le Conseil de Discernement qui,
sur saisine du Guide Suprême, a confirmé la privatisation de certains secteurs
de l’économie. Il est à noter que l’Iran est l’un des rares risques souverains
côtés par Fitch dont les avoirs publics extérieurs nets sont supérieurs au stock
de la dette (les 5 autres pays dans ce cas sont côtés au minimum A-).
Côté B+ l’année passée, Fitch révise à la hausse sa notation et à BB- et place le
risque Iran au niveau du Brésil ou du Vietnam. L’Agence de notation identifie,
toutefois, certains facteurs susceptibles d’affecter le risque Iran comme l’issue
des négociations engagées sur le dossier nucléaire, l’extrême dépendance de
l’économie aux revenus du secteur pétrolier ou, encore, le manque de discipline
fiscale.

Emmanuel Debroise
emmanuel.debroise@missioneco.org